Douglas County Election Notebook: Commissioners Hand Lockheed a 35-Year Tax Break, the Early Ballots Come Back Less Republican, Crystal Ball Moves CD4 Toward Laubacher, and Two More Complaints Land on Marx

Twelve days until the polls close. The week's two biggest Douglas County stories happened a day apart and point in opposite directions: on Tuesday the commissioners handed Lockheed Martin a 35-year tax break, and on Wednesday the state's second ballot-return count showed the county's early electorate is less Republican than it was at this point two years ago. Here is what moved, with a link to our page on each. Weekly until Nov. 3.

Lockheed: the rebate passed, and the resolution that was supposed to go with it did not show up

On Tuesday the Board of County Commissioners approved an incentive package for Lockheed Martin's planned expansion in Highlands Ranch, per the Denver Gazette's Nicholas Fogleman, who covered the meeting. The package has two parts. The first is "a 100% rebate of Douglas County's share of business personal property tax revenue for 35 years," which county staff estimate at "between $585,000 and $620,000 over the life of the agreement." The second is "up to $2.7 million in performance-based incentives," paid at $6,000 for each new job "created and retained in Douglas County for at least 24 months." Lockheed's side of it, per the same story: 450 jobs over four years, about 190,000 square feet of new space, and roughly $29 million of investment, $21 million of it in real property and $8 million in equipment.

Commissioner Abe Laydon: "This is a board that does not believe in overburdening the business community with unnecessary taxes and regulations." Commissioner Kevin Van Winkle: "I think we ought to do everything we can to offer a blanket reprieve from this regressive tax that is so burdensome." The Gazette reports no vote count and no dissent, and as of Thursday morning the county's own record does not help: the Legistar entry for the Lockheed item still reads "Agenda Ready" with no vote recorded, the meeting's minutes are marked draft, and no video is posted. We will print the roll call when the county does.

The item that was supposed to be the policy version of the same idea did not come up. Since August the board has had a "Resolution Affirming a Commitment to Waive the County's Portion of Business Personal Property Tax" on its docket; Legistar still lists Oct. 20 as its agenda date. It was not on the final agenda. The regular agenda had three items, Lockheed, a South Metro wildfire code resolution and the 2025 CAPER report, and the waiver was not among the consent items either. The Gazette story says that at an August work session the commissioners "unanimously directed staff to explore increasing the business personal property tax exemption threshold from $56,000 to $200,000." The next business meeting is Tuesday, Oct. 27, at 1:30. If the resolution is on it, that is where the board puts a number on what Van Winkle called a blanket reprieve, one week before an election with the District 1 seat on the ballot.

Turnout: the first two counts

The Secretary of State began publishing ballot-return counts this week, and we built a tracker that updates with each release and compares the county to the same point in 2024 and 2022. Through Tuesday, Oct. 20, Douglas County voters had returned 51,100 ballots: 15,853 from Republicans (31.0 percent), 12,281 from Democrats (24.0 percent), 22,479 from unaffiliated voters (44.0 percent), and 487 from minor parties. At the same point in 2024, with 55,441 ballots back, Republicans were 35.5 percent of the returns, Democrats 22.7 and unaffiliated 40.8.

That is the headline and also the caution. Two counts into a three-week window, a four-and-a-half-point drop in the Republican share could be an electorate that is changing or Republicans who are mailing later than they did in a presidential year. The county's registration has moved the first way: the Denver Gazette's Marianne Goodland reported last week that unaffiliated registration here rose to 147,359 this September from 119,794 in September 2022, while both parties lost a few thousand. Whether the ballots follow is what next Tuesday's release will start to show. Statewide, 585,485 ballots were back, 33.2 percent Democratic, 24.3 Republican, 41.4 unaffiliated.

CD4: Crystal Ball moves it, and a June number we had not seen

On Tuesday Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Colorado's 4th Congressional District from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican," per the Gazette's Ernest Luning. The forecaster's Kyle Kondik called the district redder than most seats in that category but said it has "an unusually weak Republican candidate." The story carries the money as Eileen Laubacher more than $13 million through Sept. 30 to Lauren Boebert's just over $1 million, which matches the FEC reports we read: $13.04 million to $1.33 million. Our Oct. 6 analysis named the Douglas County margin as the thing to watch; the same Gazette piece notes the forecaster moved the 8th District from toss-up to leans Democratic.

One more Douglas County number, from Goodland's Oct. 16 piece: in June's primaries, Laubacher drew 42,986 votes in the county to Boebert's 42,055, in their separate party primaries. The race page. Nothing new this week on the Weld County protection-order case, which next goes to court Nov. 16.

Marx: two more complaints, filed by the same person

Darcy Schoening, who filed the September complaint against Victor Marx's campaign that is still open on TRACER, filed two more on Oct. 19. ED2026-135, categorized as a prohibited contribution, is about Not Shook LLC, which the complaint describes as the Wyoming company behind the campaign's merchandise site. The complaint lists two campaign receipts from the LLC, $5,000 on July 27 and $6,086.25 on July 31, both reported as "Other Receipts," and argues that if they were contributions from an LLC they exceed what an LLC may give and would require the LLC's members to be disclosed; it cites a 9NEWS report of Oct. 16 that the campaign's amended filing no longer names any owner of the company. It asks to be consolidated with two of the September complaints and says their cure date is Friday, Oct. 23. The second, ED2026-136, is thinner: it concerns $740 that the Fremont County Republican Central Committee reported paying to "NOT SHOOK" in August, $500 on the 6th and $240 on the 28th, as fundraising expenses, and asks the Elections Division to determine whether any of it benefited the Marx campaign. The complaint itself concedes the reports "do not establish" that the company exists only to sell Marx merchandise or that the payments were unlawful. TRACER sets its initial review deadline at Nov. 3, Election Day.

The older case has not moved. The hearing-officer docket for the $57,647.16 fine still shows the Oct. 2 initial decision as the last entry; the refund deadline was Oct. 15, the charity deadline is Monday, and the certification that would show whether the campaign complied is due Nov. 2. Schoening's September complaint, ED2026-112, is still open past its Oct. 8 cure deadline with nothing filed since the Division's notice. The fine, in full

Dietz and Weiser: still waiting

The state's case against Vote Tim Dietz Douglas County Treasurer is still marked "Stayed" on the hearing-officer docket, with the Oct. 7 stay order the last entry and no settlement posted. The two Neuschwanger complaints against Phil Weiser's campaign are still "Open" on TRACER past their Oct. 6 cure deadline, and the docket still has no Weiser entry. The treasurer race

Castle Rock: what council had in front of it Tuesday, and why we cannot tell you how it went

Castle Rock's council was scheduled Tuesday to take second and final votes on the 2027 budget, the 2027 utility rates and a set of fire code changes, and to hold the RidgeView Town Center annexation hearing. We could not confirm any of the outcomes by Thursday: the town's website refused our reads all day, the town's news page carried nothing from the meeting, and no outlet we could find had a story. What went into the meeting, per the Gazette's coverage of the Oct. 6 first readings: the utility package raises water rates 5 percent, water resource fees 8 percent, stormwater fees 5 percent and wastewater rates 1 percent on Jan. 1, taking the average residential bill from $1,571 this year to $1,647; and the fire code changes passed first reading 6 to 1 with the proposed ban on fireworks sales during Stage 1 restrictions stripped out, Mayor Jason Gray the lone no: "I think it's a harmful mixed message when you say you cannot light your fireworks off, but you can go ahead and buy fireworks." So unless council put the sales ban back in, Tuesday's vote was on a fire code without one. We will add the votes when the minutes post. The council race

Amendment 87 stays on the ballot

On Wednesday Denver District Judge Heidi Kutcher ruled that Amendment 87, the graduated income tax, can stay on the November ballot, per Goodland. The challenger, Michael A. Hancock of Centennial, had asked the court to throw out about 11,216 signatures gathered by 69 paid circulators he said were improperly registered or untrained; the measure was certified with 130,938 valid signatures against 124,238 required. His lawyer said he would seek an expedited appeal to the Colorado Supreme Court. Chris deGruy Kennedy of Protect Colorado's Future: "We are elated and relieved by the judge's decision." every race and measure on your ballot

The money in the two legislative seats that could flip

Goodland's Oct. 16 piece also carries the first outside-spending figures we have seen for the county's two contested legislative seats. In Senate District 30, Sen. John Carson has raised $130,000 and loaned his campaign $36,500, while Kevin Leung has loaned his $50,000; the Senate Majority Fund has spent $923,000 defending Carson, the Republican State Leadership Committee about $40,000 against Leung, and the Democratic side's All Together Colorado had $1.2 million on hand at Sept. 30 and had not spent on the race. In House District 43, Rep. Bob Marshall has raised more than $116,000 to Nate Marsh's almost $67,000; Marshall won the seat by just over 400 votes of 45,376 in 2022 and by 1,373 of 54,457 in 2024. Marshall, on the county: "It's turning less red." HD-43

Parker: still no recording

Fifteen days after the Parker Chamber's members-only council forum, the event page still says the recording would be posted to the chamber's social media, and there is still no link. The Parker council page

New on the site this week

Judge Victoria Klingensmith, the Castle Rock district judge rated 6 to 1 by the commission that reviewed her; Judge Rebecca Rankin Freyre; the state treasurer race; the two party voter guides side by side; Castle Pines Questions 300 and 301; where to vote in person, by phase; and the turnout tracker.

More: every race and measure on your ballot. We do not endorse candidates. Campaigns can send corrections to hello@discoverdougco.com.